000 AGXX40 KNHC 111751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE LA/TX COAST AND IS PRECEDED BY A CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS MUCH AS 420 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 06Z TONIGHT. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS FL ON SUN NIGHT WHILE THE S PORTION HANGS UP FROM SE FL ACROSS THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE W PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH THEN BECOMES ORIENTATED N-S ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH MON. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF...AND ALSO BOTH E AND W OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON...THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON TUE AS THE TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTATED FROM LA-FL BAY ON MON...N-S FROM LA TO THE YUCATAN ON TUE AND EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NE TX COAST ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE A WEAK LOW PRES ANALYZED OVER COSTA RICA WILL MOVE INTO THE E PAC THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY TO THE N OF 16N ALONG 67W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE AREA NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A NE-E 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE...20-25 KT...WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. E WINDS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT...WITH SEAS 5-7 FT...ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 KT ON SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY E WINDS AT 10 KT BACKING GRADUALLY TO THE NE...WILL PASS E ACROSS THE CUBAN WATERS N OF 20N ON MON INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD SE AND INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT...WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND ALSO MANUALLY ADJUSTED WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS VERIFY A LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPED AT 24N66W ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM MONA PASSAGE. THE LOW IS PROGRESSING E WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE CENTER. NE-E-SE WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE LATEST RAIN CONTAMINATED SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 20-30 KT. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH TO ITS S WILL DRIFT W ON SUN REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS ON MON. A RIDGE CURRENTLY FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA WILL RETREAT SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA ON MON...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON TUE MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. REMNANTS OF THE MERGED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAX AT ONLY 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES WILL PRODUCE N-NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 600 NM W OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS THE FRONTS BEGINS TO WASH OUT OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 55W-65W ON WED. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...THUS BLENDED SOME ECMWF WITH GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRIDDED PACKAGE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.