000
AGXX40 KNHC 101756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                         
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30N WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW S OF RIDGE IS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT WITH
MAX SEAS OF 4-7 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS CLOCKING TO THE S...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BUT ONLY OVER THE S-CENTRAL WATERS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX/LA COAST INTO THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO
21N97W ON SAT NIGHT...CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN FROM THE FL BIG BEND
TO 23N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W ON SUN. THE NE FLOW W
OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WITH SEAS 5-7
FT...NEAR 25N95W ON SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING. A POST-
FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NW-SE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON PUSHING
THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT E OF THE GULF WATERS ON SUN
NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON AS THE POST-FRONTAL
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND THE RIDGE AXIS BECOME ORIENTATED
FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN WATERS ON TUE-WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE

REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SE-NW
FROM 15N55W TO 18N97W AND ACCOMPNAIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS SWINGING E OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ITS MEAN AXIS
CURRENTLY TO THE N OF 17N ALONG 74W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WITH THE AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
NOW APPEARING TO BE LIFTING NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. LATEST PRECIP
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THUS
ADJUSTED WORDING IN THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. FRESH TO STRONG E
TRADES...AT 20 AND OCCASIONALLY 25 KT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 5-8
FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AT 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. SEAS
WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH A MAX OF 7 FT IN LONG PERIOD E SWELL
ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECT ONLY THE
SLIGHEST BACKING OF WINDS FROM ENE TO NNE ALONG THE SOUTHERN END
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N
ON MON AND TUE...WITH THE NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE NW
WATERS W OF THE FRONT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE

A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE AREA WITH ITS
MEAN AXIS FROM 31N68W TO 25N73W TO OVER HAITI...WITH AMPLIFICATION
CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR 23N70W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED S OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-71W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT THE AREA OF ENHANCEMENT SEEMS TO BE LIFTING
NE ATTM AND ALSO DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. A
SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED AT 30N73W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NE FLORIDA WILL
SHIFT S AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN...THEN
SHIFT E ON MON AND TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
NW WATERS ON SUN...EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA MON...AND
FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUE. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE COLD FRONT THAN OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS...THUS BLENDED INTO SOME ECMWF WITH GFS INTO PREVIOUS
GRIDDED PACKAGE.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.