000 AGXX40 KNHC 100726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 326 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND A 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28.5N84W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO MEXICAN COAST. RECENT 0342 ASCAT PASS SHOWED GRADIENT INDUCED E-SE FLOW AROUND 20 KT OFF N COAST OF YUCATAN EXTENDING TO 24N...AND BUOY 42055 NOW REPORTING ESE WINDS 19 KT WITH SEAS 6 FT. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW INTO BASIN AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N TEXAS-OK TO MOVE SE AND REACH NEAR TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DRIFT SE INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG N GULF COASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS AS SUPPORTING ENERGY LIFTS NE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS DEPICT VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE BANDS AND WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT...AND ALONG MEXICAN COAST RESPECTIVELY. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATIONWITH LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING TROUGH THAT TYPICALLY DEVELOPS OVER W YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME MODEST TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AFTER 72 HOURS AND LEANED TOWARD ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON HIGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE EXTREME NE CARIB...WHERE REMNANTS OF AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGER JUST N OF THE ISLANDS...AND LOW-MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG ABOUT 75W CONTINUES TO BLOCK HIGH FROM BUILDING FULLY INTO BASIN. THIS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR BROAD AREA OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS VERIFIED BY RECENT 0200Z ASCAT PASS. BUOY 42058 HAS JUST RISEN TO 8 FT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT LIKELY TO THE S AND SW OF IT ATTM...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WW3. I SEE LITTLE EVIDENCE OF TROUGH OR WAVE IN THE SW CARIB THIS MORNING...AND NOT SURE IF WE STILL HAVE A TROUGH AT SURFACE THERE. BAROTROPIC GROWTH FORECAST BY MODELS ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO EPAC NEXT FEW DAYS APPEARS TO WAVE PRODUCE A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER SEEN IN IR IMAGERY ATTM IN EPAC NEAR 06N82W AND MOVING W AS FORECAST. EPAC MONSOON TROUGH TO UNDULATE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL MOVE N INTO SW CARIB S OF 12N DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT S OF 15N AS ATLC RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA...S OF E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS WINDS NOCTURNAL WINDS PULSING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES THE PULSING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. OLD FRONTAL ZONE IN FORM OF SHEAR LINE SNAKES ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND INTO CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...WITH SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION AFFECTING ISLANDS FROM ST LUCIA NWD. ENE WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY TO MAINTAIN FORCING FOR SCATTERED CNVTN...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TO ENHANCE CNVTN ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WITH TREND TOWARD ECMWF BY DAY 5. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA...WITH SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS CONVERGED E OF THIS TROUGH PAST FEW DAYS AND IS INTERACTING WITH ENERGETIC NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC FOR SCT TO NUM CNVTN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS N OF 22N AND E OF TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SHIFT E WITH NEGATIVE TILT BASE OF TROUGH DIGGING SE ACROSS PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. JET MAX THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH TO PROVIDE DYNAMICS FOR POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THERE THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING E OF 65W SAT EVENING. MODERATE E TO E-SE TRADES TO OTHERWISE PREVAIL E OF 70W...WITH LIGHT SE TO S WINDS W OF 70W INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SE COAST SUN AND DRAG WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NW PORTIONS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND WILL TREND GRIDS MORE TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION BEYOND MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.