000
AGXX40 KNHC 271839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MOST MODELS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4 THEN GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS WEAK TROUGH SKIRTS NORTHERN WATERS.

RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES CENTER OVER EASTERN SEABOARD SW BAY
OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF GULF. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.  MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
SHOWING WEAK TROUGH DIGGING S THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE MON WEAKENING AND ALTERING SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ENTERING BASIN AFTER FORECAST PERIOD. 
LOOKING AHEAD...TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE ON ARRIVAL OF COLD
FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI.  MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS
NEXT FRONT AS FAIRLY STRONG GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WINDS TO GALE
FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER WESTERN GULF BEYOND LATE THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 5.
MAIN PATTERN ACROSS BASIN CONTROLED BY ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA
PROMPTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF REGION
EXCEPT FRESH NE BREEZE ALONG EASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES
E DRIFT FORCED BY WEAK TROUGH N OF 31N RELAXES PRES GRADIENT AND
DIMINISHES WINDS BELOW 20 KT ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE
TUE. NEW HIGH PRES CENTER OFF CAROLINA COAST STRENGTHENS WINDS
OVER GULF OF HONDURAS WED BUT BRINGS THEM DOWN BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS
WATERS N OF 22N THROUGH MID WEEK. EASTERNMOST LONGITUDES EXPECTED
TO FEEL LARGE LONG PERIOD NE-E SWELL EFFECT PROMPTED BY MAJOR ATLC
LOW PRES WELL NE OF BASIN. WHILE MODELS UNDERESTIMATE HIGHEST SEAS
WELL E OF BASIN...HEIGHTS W OF 65W SEEM APPROPRIATE.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.