000
AGXX40 KNHC 240651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 AM EDT WED APR 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE:BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF
WATERS...EXCEPT 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT OVER FAR E TEXAS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDING THE PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...TAKING WITH IT THE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY ALL THE
WAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO INLAND NE MEXICO BY EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N95W TO THE SW GULF THU WHERE IT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY INTO FRI. THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT FRI WHILE THE REST OF
THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE:BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF

LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC...4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND
WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG PERIOD NE
SWELL WILL REACH THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI
MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALSO IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE ZONE OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE WHILE
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL START TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM N-S SUNDAY EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE:BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO NEAR 24N71W WHERE A TROUGH
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E
OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TODAY....AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG 67W/68W BY EARLY
THU...66W/67W BY EARLY FRI...AND REACH THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE
AREA BY SAT...FINALLY SHIFTING E OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD FRONT
ABOUT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE FAR NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAKENING. AS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE
AREA BEFORE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI EVENING.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.