000 AGXX40 KNHC 191850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG BUOY AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE GULF ENTERING THE GULF FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 27N91W TO INLAND MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT CONTINUE. SIMILAR WINDS WERE NOTICED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF LAST NIGHT...AND INTO THIS MORNING BUT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT SINCE. THE BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 11 TO 12 FT IN THE NW GULF AND 14 FT COMBINED SEAS AT BUOY 42002 AT 26N94W. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE GULF...AND 8 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE NW GULF. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS ADVERTISED EARLIER WITH THE PRESENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF SCHEDULED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE AT 30 KT TONIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOT BEING TOO FAVORABLE FOR THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH OF AN EASTWARD PUSH...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM NE FLORIDA TO 25N89W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING....THEN FORECAST IT TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE SUN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGES SUN EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS LOWERING THROUGHOUT USING AS INDICATED BY THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GULF. THIS NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST BY A GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT WILL MOVE TO NEAR A SE LOUISIANA TO SW GULF POSITION BY LATE WED. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REACH STRONG INTENSITY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS INTO THE SE GULF. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN ASCAT ASCAT PASS FROM 1506 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS S OF 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT THERE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES SLIDES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED WITH THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE ATLC HIGH. NE SWELLS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 6 OR 7 FT AND STAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATL WATERS AND TO S FLORIDA. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AS WELL BY AN EXTENSIVE ARRAY OF SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 8-9 FT IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE. DEEP SE MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL FORECAST THIS FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT AFTERNOON. WITH VERY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH SUN AND LINGER OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES WILL NOSE SWD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE BRINGING NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY TO 9 FT OR 10 FT. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND DAMPEN OUT THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NW PORTION. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE