000 AGXX40 KNHC 181853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 21Z REACH LCH TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. STRONG NLY FLOW WILL BUILD IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 30 KT BY 00Z ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF BRO AND CRP THEN FILL IN BY 06Z WITH WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT BEHIND FRONT. HAS DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH GALES N OF 26N TONIGHT AS SHELF WATERS STILL ONLY 20-21 C ACROSS THE OUTER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...AND ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE LOW IN THE AREA. GALES THEN EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT S OF 26N BY 12Z FRI AS FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR MOB TO TUXPAN...THEN TO FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z SAT. ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR GALES END AT 00Z SAT...WHILE SREF SUGGESTING GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z S OF 21N IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN FCST AS OF YET. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECWAVE MODEL WHICH PEAKS SWH AT 15-16 FT AT 00Z SAT...WHILE WW3 PEAKING AT 13-14 FT THEN. FRONT STALLS AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR FT MYERS TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH REMNANTS LIFTING N ACROSS W AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN. WIND AND SEAS TO THEN ABATE THROUGH MON-TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAKER HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESHENING TRADES WITH CHUBASCOS SPREADING W ACROSS EXTREME NE CARIB AND ISLANDS ATTM WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT IN MIX WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL TRADES THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL BUILD S INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED. BUOY 42058 REPORTING INTERMITTENTLY AND LEAVING A HUGE HOLE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL CARIB. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK TROUGHING N OF 28N IS KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW LIGHT FOR THE MOMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTEROMETER...ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA REPORTING GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION N OF 23N. SEAS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. AS NOTED ABOVE...TRADE STARTING TO INCREASE ATTM ACROSS ADJACENT WATERS OF NE CARIB...AND WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL ATLC. SE RETURN FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI N OF 27N W OF 73W...OVER AMZ111 AND 113...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E BEFORE STALLING FROM REACH FROM 31N76W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT...THEN MEANDERING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUN AND MON. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND ATLC S OF 22N FRI AND SAT IN NE TO E SWELL AND ENHANCED TRADES...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT SUN INTO MON AS TRADES DIMINISH. MODEST DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST WITH E CENTRAL DEEP LAYERED LOW FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SLIGHT REPURCUSSIONS NEXT WEEK FOR ASSOCIATED NE SWELL TO MOVE INTO E AND SE PORTIONS. STAY TUNED...BUT AT PRESENT PREFER THE ECENS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO UKMET...WITH GFS AND GFES DIGGING FARTHER S AND SE WITH SURFACE LOW. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.