000 AGXX40 KNHC 011822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY LIGHT NW TO N WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF INTO FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG 100W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF THE U.S. WED WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND CAUSE WINDS IN THE NE GULF TO VEER TO NE-E TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN E-SE WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W WED NIGHT THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR PENSACOLA FL BY THU NIGHT...THEN RACING NE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS THEN SW WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BY THU WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY IS STILL ZERO. THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N62W EXTENDS A RIDGE MAINLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO PERSIST ALONG 28N THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE N WATERS... PARTICULARLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT REACHING THE SE WATERS BY WED. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED AND THU WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE N WATERS BY THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT IN NW PORTION LATE THU. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A MINORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE STILL FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SOME SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WIND FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THESE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT. FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER GR