000 AGXX40 KNHC 310700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES IN THE WESTERN ATLC SLIDES EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEUTRAL POINT DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W MON...THEN RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE STRONGER SE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON WED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WED WHICH DEEPENS AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY E-NE TO NEAR 28N87W BY THU EVENING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED LOW WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IN THE INTERIM. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0230 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS AS 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N71W SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD. EXPECT RIDGE TO PERSIST ALONG 28N THROUGH MON EVENING WHILE THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 29N THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED AND THU WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE THU W OF 75W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT IN NW PORTION LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0230 UTC SHOWED STRONG NE WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA AND FRESH-STRONG E-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT IN MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO RELAX. EXPECT 25-30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL