000 AGXX40 KNHC 231900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WITH LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WITH A FEW PLATFORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF REPORTING SE TO S WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF WITH SHIP DBBH REPORTING SE TO S WINDS OF 25 KT...WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT EARLIER. AREA OF WINDS WILL SPREAD NWD OVER THE GULF E OF 88W TONIGHT AND SUN AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER AL. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER E TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BETWEEN 09-12Z TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN...THEN CLEAR THE GULF BY LATE MON. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ON SUN. GALES NOT EXPECTED PER GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF ZERO AND 30-M WINDS ONLY REACHING 30 KT FOR A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD. COORDINATED WITH WFO BROWNSVILLE ON THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE FORECAST. WINDS VEER TO THE N-NE MON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SE CONUS BEHIND STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FRESHENS NLY WINDS TUE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED AND THU WITH WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE SE OVER THE FAR W GULF BY LATE THU. WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS WERE A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL FCST...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... 1019 MB HIGH PRES E OF BAHAMAS NEAR 25N66W IS MOVING ESE WITH S WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW ZONE...AMZ111. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON SUN AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD N OF 27N...REACHING 30 KT N OF 30N. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA BY LATE TUE. TRENDS IN THE 12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES LEANING MORE TOWARD GALES ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115 MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. HOWEVER SINCE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MORE BENIGN ECMWF WAS USED IN THE GRIDS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON GALES AT THIS TIME. IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN SUBSEQUENT GFS/ECMWF NWP SUITES...GALES MAY BE ISSUED. IN ANY EVENT A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAVE MODELS RESULTS IN SEAS OF 18-19 FT ACROSS THE FAR NE ZONES LATE TUE AND WED. STRONG W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT... AND VEER TO THE N BY LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED E OF N BAHAMAS AND LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOST OF AREA LATE SUN AND MON AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE WRN GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TUE...AND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS BY LATE WED...AND THU. A FRONT EXTENDING THIS FAR S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SO LATE IN THE SEASON IS RARE. GIVEN WARMING SSTS...THE DECENT CAA MAY BUILD SEAS 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER THAN NWW3...AND SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10M WINDS...10M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...EFFECTIVE 25 MARCH 2013 GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED. $$ FORECASTER COBB