000 AGXX40 KNHC 111834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY 42002...IN THE NW CORNER OF ZONE GMZ019...REPORTED 33 KT N WINDS BETWEEN 1100-1300 UTC BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS ZONE AS A RESULT. WHILE GUSTS ARE STILL TO GALE FORCE AT THIS BUOY...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE AS THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO SAMPLE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...BUT GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THERE NOW AND IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 1200 UTC GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE CHANCE OF GALES GOING DOWN TO ZERO PERCENT BY 0000 UTC TONIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON SOME ENERGY IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY A STRONGER COLD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THAT TIME THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ALLOWING FOR A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SPREADING FROM N TO S IN THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE UKMET HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IS SLOWER TO GET WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE SE GULF WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS TOWARD THE GFS...LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS SOLUTION. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE BIG STORY IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE SWELL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 21 FT CAN BE FOUND IN THE FAR NE WATERS. MULTIPLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE GRADIENT OF SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SEEN IN THE MWW3. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG 75W AND LOW PRES JUST NE OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING NW TO N WINDS TO 25 KT OVER WATERS E OF 65W. STRONG WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SWELL WILL SHIFT E AND SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 1200 UTC MWW3 AND THE 0000 UTC EC WAVE MODEL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE OBSERVATIONS CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NE WATERS...BUT THE EC WAVE HAS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE SWELL REGION OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE MWW3 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST MODEL COMPARED TO THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 1200 UTC. A NEW FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WATERS. BOTH THE 1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CARRY STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED. THIS IS A TREND TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE 1200 UTC GFS AND MWW3. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS FREQUENTLY FOUND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 1200 UTC GFS CARRIES 30 KT WINDS HERE IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING FRI. SINCE THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE MODEL TO BEAT HERE...WILL SIDE WITH ITS STRONGER SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER MODELS WHICH CAP OUT AT 25 KT. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THIS 5 KT DIFFERENCE. ELSEWHERE LARGE N SWELL IS THE STORY IN THE ATLC PASSAGES AND SW N ATLC. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THU. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY TUE NIGHT AND LIE FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED MORNING...FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU MORNING...AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER FRI MORNING. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND MWW3 CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST/HIGHEST FORECASTS HERE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THIS FRONT. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GFS TIMING...BUT IS NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS WITH THE STRONG N-NE BREEZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THU/FRI BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A HOLD OUT BY NOT MOVING THE FRONT AS FAR SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER HERE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION WARRANTED BLENDING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 26N W OF FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 18N94W... GMZ017...GMZ019 AND GMZ023. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER