000 AGXX40 KNHC 101839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1532 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS HAVE OVERTAKEN THE GULF W OF 90W. BUOY 42019 IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS. THIS IS 2-3 FT BELOW THE MWW3 AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC WAVE WHILE THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IS SHOWS MUCH OF THE NW ZONE N OF 27N AT 11 FT. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BEEF UP THE MWW3 FORECAST HERE INITIALLY AS WELL AS WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE MWW3 IS FREQUENTLY LOW COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 0600 UTC MON MORNING. THE 1200 UTC GEFS MEMBERS DO NOT CARRY A CHANCE OF GALE AT THAT TIME...BUT THE RESOLUTION OF THE MODEL AND ITS TOPOGRAPHY IS A DETRIMENT HERE. THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHS OF THIS AMPLITUDE AND SPEED. CONFIDENT THAT THE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT A MINIMUM. BY 1200-1800 UTC MON...THE 1200 UTC GFS AND UKMET CARRY GALE FORCE NW WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GEFS SHOWS A 60-100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS THE HOLD OUT. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM 0600 TO 1800 UTC MON. HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON SOME ENERGY IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THAT TIME...ALLOWING FOR A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SPREADING FROM N TO S IN THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS ENTHUSIASTIC...DESPITE HINTING AT THIS ENERGY IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE LATEST 1200 UTC GFS BUT NOT ALL THE WAY TO ITS SOLUTION. SAME WAS TRUE WITH THE MWW3. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 1348 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT OVER NE WATERS. THE PREVIOUS GALE ENDED AT 1200 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IN THE ATLC IS THE LARGE SWELL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 22 FT CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN WATERS NEAR 29N. MULTIPLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THESE CONDITIONS. N SWELL TO 22 FT WILL PERSIST OVER NE WATERS INTO MON BEFORE SHIFTING E AND SUBSIDING. THE 1200 UTC MWW3 AND THE 0000 UTC EC WAVE MODEL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE OBSERVATIONS CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NE WATERS...BUT THE EC WAVE HAS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE SWELL REGION OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE MWW3 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST MODEL COMPARED TO THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE JASON2 PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC. A NEW FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WATERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO DIMINISH THE WINDS. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE 1200 UTC GFS HERE...BUT DID NOT BUY OFF ON ITS STRONGER SOLUTION WHOLE HOG. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS FREQUENTLY FOUND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT COMPARED TO THE 09/1200 UTC RUN ON THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS FORECAST HERE THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING WINDS A STRONG BREEZE HERE IN THE MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST SIDES WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS. ELSEWHERE N SWELL IS THE STORY IN THE ATLC PASSAGES AND SW N ATLC..WITH SEAS TO 12 FEET EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE VERY GRADUALLY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY TUE NIGHT AND LIE FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED MORNING AND FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU MORNING. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND MWW3 FORECAST HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE COLD SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE FORECAST THINKING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER S WITH THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE 0000 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION LEAVES ROOM FOR SOME FUNNELING OF WINDS BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE FRONT WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE MODEL DEPICTS. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND MWW3 SOLUTIONS WERE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HERE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 26N W OF 94W MON...GMZ017 AND GMZ023. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER