000 AGXX40 KNHC 061755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST WED MAR 06 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW GULF WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE TOGETHER ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY TO 25 KT IN THE E GULF. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING ON WSR-88D RADARS...AND OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. FOR SUN INTO MON...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MAJOR MODELS SHOWING THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A TRAILING FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUN AND REACHING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE TRAILING END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM NEAR 19N55W TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N67W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY DISSIPATING TONIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE NE TO E FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EVEN TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WILL BE TRUNCATED TO ONLY THE PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO WED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH RIDING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND ALSO THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NW-N OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS S THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM HAITI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE FRI BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT. NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT AND ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT... BUILDING TO UP TO 10-12 FT SUN THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN REACHING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-15 FT JUST N OF 31N AT NDBC BUOY 41002. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE LIGHTNING DATA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AMZ111-113-115 N OF 28N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT DIPPING S A BIT TO 27N BY THU MORNING IN AMZ115. ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE BY THU EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE WEAKENING ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF 31N. NOTE THAT EVEN IF SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT INTO THU...BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THEN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO 28N73W TO 25N81W THIS EVENING...FROM 31N63W TO 27N67W TO 22N78W THU MORNING...FROM 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI MORNING...SHIFTING E OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AN IMPRESSIVE 15 TO 20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT...MIGRATING EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTS PROGRESSION IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...FOLLOWED BY N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH MON. THESE LARGE SWELLS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT PUERTO RICO AND NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SAT EVENING... SPREADING THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THEREAFTER. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ111-113-115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY