000 AGXX40 KNHC 031845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LINGER IN THE SE GULF... STRONGEST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND N OF CUBA...WHILE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE NE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. SEAS OF 7-10 FT WITH NW SWELL IN THE SE GULF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY MON MORNING. THE 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N92W WILL SLIDE TO THE E-SE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE NW GULF BY MON MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND TO THE N CENTRAL GULF BY TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO BREACH THE NW GULF LATE TUE MORNING INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...THEN FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF WED MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY WED EVENING. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY TO 30 KT IN THE NE GULF...WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THU MORNING AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN FROM THE N. A NE TO SW RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AGAIN IN THE NW GULF BY LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE RECENTLY SAMPLED BY A HIGH- RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS IN ZONE AMZ029 E OF NICARAGUA AND W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN PANAMA BY MON MORNING...THEN FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS BY 00 UTC TONIGHT WHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 12-14 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS S OF 15N W OF 80W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UP TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TUE MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE...TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH THU THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES BY N OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING HIGH PRES TO THE N. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE TAIL END SHOULD MANAGE TO SNEAK S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...DISSIPATING IN THE FAR N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING. A BRIEF SPURT OF NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND ALSO BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EASTERLY MODERATE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCITEMENT WILL BE THE ATLC PORTION OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 4-7 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL...WITH A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE WATERS N OF 19N/20N BY NEXT WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK. THE EASTERNMOST...A COLD FRONT... REACHES FROM 28N65W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO 27N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT E OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 65N22W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY MON MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH REACHING FROM 31N60W TO NEAR THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS WILL ROTATE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A BRIEF GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR ZONES AMZ113-115 N OF 29N MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS OF 11-14 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS WITH THE LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE TRENDING EVEN 1-2 FT HIGHER. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUE...SLIDING E ALONG 27N THROUGH WED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY IN THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN TUE NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER GALE WARNING LIKELY NEEDED FOR AMZ111 AND AMZ113 N OF 29N WED...EXPANDING TO AMZ115 BY THU. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THESE WINDS...ARRIVING NOW AT 12 UTC WED INSTEAD OF 18 UTC...AND ALSO MORE TO THE S TO AT LEAST 27N IF NOT 26N. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE THEN THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED EARLIER AND EXPANDED TO THE S. THIS ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STEM FROM A PARENT DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF 31N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL WED MORNING...FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED EVENING...THEN FROM 31N64W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS THU MORNING. FRESH TO EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE. VERY LARGE NW SWELL OF 18-24 FT WILL IMPACT THE FAR NE WATERS THU THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ029. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ113-115 MON. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111 N OF 29N WED. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ113 N OF 29N WED THROUGH THU. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 N OF 29N THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY