000 AGXX40 KNHC 030745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ANOMALOUSLY COLD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND ACROSS NE GULF THIS MORNING...AND IS CLEARING OUT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING YESTERDAY ACROSS THE GULF ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS. WEAK LLVL TROUGH AXIS REFLECTED BELOW EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO SE GULF...WITH NWLY FLOW 20-25 KT TO ITS NW AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES DEPICTED THIS FLOW OCCURRING W OF 90W AND ALONG W COAST OF FLORIDA. BUY 42003 NOW UP TO 10 FT...WHICH IS 3 FT ABOVE WW3...WHILE OTHER BUOYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND S GULF 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE AS WELL. HAVE BLENDED ECWAVE INTO SWH GRIDS TO ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH W TO E THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD MON AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 20-25 KT WILL SETUP TONIGHT IN THE NW GULF...QUICKLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG INTO EARLY MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS MON MORNING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE MORNING...QUICKLY SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF BY LATE WED. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DIVE SWD INTO W CARIB THIS MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR E TIP OF CUBA TO 17N80W TO N COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 82W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES HAVE MISSED THIS POST FRONTAL AREA...WHERE GALES ARE FORECAST AND ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING....WHEN FRONT WILL REACH FROM W COASTAL HAITI TO N COAST OF PANAMA ALONG ABOUT 81W. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN...REACHING NW COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA ALONG 78W BY 00Z TUE AND ANEGADA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL CARIB BY 00Z WED AS ELY TRADES BUILD BACK ACROSS SRN CARIB AND LIFT FRONTAL REMNANTS BACK TOWARD THE NW. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WW3 ALSO APPEARS LOW ACROSS THE W CARIB ATTM BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BUOY 42056 REMAINING 11-12 FT PAST FEW HOURS...2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND AGAIN HAVE BLENDED IN ECWAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGER AREA OF 10+ FT SEAS THAT EXTEND FARTHER SE...WITH MAX SEAS 13-14 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU...AND ALSO ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST AGAIN WHERE WINDS MAY BE NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA...TROUGHING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE E...AND THE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXCEPT A BRIEF WIND SHIFT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION BEHIND THE DECAYING TAIL OF EACH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS MORNING AS E COAST DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP SEWD. FRONT PRESENTLY FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR E TIP OF CUBA WITH LLVL TROUGH BEHIND IT ACROSS NW PORTIONS EXTENDING SW INTO S FLORIDA. FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY MERGE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES SE...REACHING FROM NEAR 25.5N65W TO NW COAST OF HAITI 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN ACROSS SE PORTIONS TO NW COAST OF PUERTO RICO 00Z TUE THEN SE INTO NE CARIB BY 00Z WED. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WILL FOLLOW THE LLVL TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N/27N THROUGH MON...WITH SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS PRECEDING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS 12-15 FT WILL SPREAD FROM NW WATERS E AND SE BY 00Z TUE...MAINLY N OF 26-27N. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE MON THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NW ZONES LATE TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY WED MORNING...THEN FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE TIED TO DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO OVER 20 FT N OF 30N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON IN AMZ111 AND AMZ113 SPREADING EASTWARD TO AMZ115 THU. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIMILAR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN GFS...AND MAINTAINS AN ELY MOTION INTO FRI BEFORE SHIFTING NE FRI NIGHT-SAT. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION YIELDS STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS FOR THE REGIONAL WATERS...AND AM PRESENTLY TAKING A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ019-AMZ029. SW N ATLC... .NONE. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111 WED. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ113 WED AND THU. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 THU. 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