000 AGXX40 KNHC 020753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ANOMALOUSLY COLD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF GULF THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LOW TO MID CLOUDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS. 1026 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED SSE INTO W GULF AND CONTINUES TO YIELD FRESH NLY FLOW SPILLING S ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN AND THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS TODAY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD DENSE AIR DROPS INTO NW HALF OF GULF TODAY TO ENHANCE NW FLOW BACK TO 20-25 KT ALMOST BASIN WIDE. WW3 LOOKS UNDERDONE TODAY WITH THIS NEXT SURGE...AND WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE HIGHER VALUES OF ECWAVE...BUILDING SEAS 8-11 FT FROM NW THROUGH S CENTRAL PORTIONS BY 00Z SUN THEN SHIFTING SE INTO SE PORTIONS AND STRAITS OF FL BY 00Z MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR ARKANSAS MON NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE...THEN S-SE OF AREA WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BUT IS DRIFTING SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF CARIB WITH RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWING NLY WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND IT THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH BUOY 42056 NOW UP TO 10 FT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PROGRESS SE NEXT 72 HOURS...REACHING ERN CUBA TO NEAR NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER BY 00Z SUN...THEN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL PANAMA BY 00Z MON AND MONA PASSAGE TO FAR ERN PANAMA BY 00Z TUE. STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT AND BRIDGING OVER IT WILL SPREAD SE AND S THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILL DOWN COAST OF NICARAGUA TO PRODUCE GALES COMMENCING AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. GFS SHOWS 50 KT PBL JET BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WILL INDUCE GALES THERE OVERNIGHT. WW3 ALSO LOOKS UNDERDONE ACROSS W CARIB BEHIND FRONT AND AM TRENDING TOWARD FASTER BUILDING SEAS OF ECWAVE...PEAKING AROUND 13 FT THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL WATERS NEAR HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER THEN SHIFTING QUICKLY SSE INT FAR W CARIB. N COAST OF PANAMA TO BE POUNDED LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY LARGE NNW SWELL WITH SEAS PEAKING 11-13 FT S OF 10N THERE. ELSEWHERE...DISRUPTED TRADE WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH ATLC NW TO N SWELL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH E CARIB PASSAGES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STRUNG OUT FRONT CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WILL MEANER ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY THEN FINALLY MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS SUN AND MON AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY BY SURGE OF COLDER AIR STREAMING OFF NORTH AMERICA ACROSS NW PORTIONS...SHIFTING TO CENTRAL PART BY SUN...WITH BOUNDARY REACHING MONA PASSAGE BY 00Z TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SE U.S. SUN AND MON WILL ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS 25 KT TO SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS W OF 75W BY SUN EVENING AND BUILD SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS OPEN ATLC NE OF BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE W OF 70W AS NEW LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS NW ATLC AND GENERATES HIGH SEAS TO SWEEP SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS TUE-WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MINIMAL GALES ACROSS N PORTIONS DURING THIS TIME. GFS HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND DUE TO OW LAT TRACK WILL GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL EVENT FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AMZ019-029. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING