000 AGXX40 KNHC 281850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST THU FEB 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT FROM FLORIDA STRAITS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DRIFT FURTHER SE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICO WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SE OF THE REGION FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS W OF 94W EARLY FRI SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXARKANA MON NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED TO DEVELOP THE FORECAST GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GETS REINFORCEMENT BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT...FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS NEAR THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA SAT AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO PANAMA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT THROUGH LATE SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNUSUALLY STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALL THE WAY S TO PANAMA SUN NIGHT...WITH NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS ALONG COAST OF NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ...BUT CONSIDERING RARE NATURE OF EVENT...EXPECT WINDS CLOSE TO THRESHOLD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-15 FT S OF 15N W OF 78W SUN AND MON ...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OCEAN-GOING COMMERCE TRANSITING THROUGH PANAMA CANAL. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL RETREAT FURTHER E THROUGH LATE FRI...AND ALLOW WINDS ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC REGION TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N67W ACROSS NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION... SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA IN TWO NEARLY EQUAL PARTS NW AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY...THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURGES OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR STREAMING OFF NORTH AMERICA FRI THROUGH SUN WILL HELP REINFORCE THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRADIENTS ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SE U.S. SUN AND MON WILL ALLOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP W OF 70W AND INCREASE SEAS TO 9-13 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE W OF 70W AS THE AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND 10-15 FT SEAS SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD TUE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL