000 AGXX40 KNHC 232000 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW OF 1010 MB OVER THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST SW OF PENSACOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 27N93.5W THEN SSW TO NEAR 21N95W. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIPS SE OF THE FRONT SHOW SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT SE OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHTER SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 IN THE FAR ERN PART OF THE GULF. THE BUOYS AND PLATFORMS NW OF THE FRONT SHOW NE 15 KT WINDS THERE WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THE 1542 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTED 15 KT WINDS TO BE PRESENT NW OF THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS NW OF THE FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF THE SE-S 15-20 KT WINDS ARE BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE REVEALED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ERN TEXAS WILL SERVE AS A REINFORCEMENT SHOT OF NW FLOW INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT TO A LOCATION FROM ROUGHLY NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N88W AND STATIONARY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT ON SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY MON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS THEY PULSE SWD BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...AND MOVE SE OF AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRES FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS WED...AND TO SE OF THE GULF BY LATE THU. HIGH PRES WILL THEN AGAIN BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THIS FRONT. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE WRN EDGE OF A 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT OCCURRING IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT SEA STATE MATCHES PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST GRIDDED WWIII GUIDANCE VALID AT 1200 UTC. THE 1542 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SUSTAINED SE 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A VERY TIGHT PRES RESULTING FROM STRONG N CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND DEEP LOW PRES OVER WRN COLOMBIA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS THERE... OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W AS. WINDS OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO MON THROUGH TUE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE. HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE SUN EVENING. BY TUE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF AND SW N ATLC WILL MOVE THE RIDGE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. MAINLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. LARGE LONG-PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND COVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES TUE...WITH THESE SWELLS THEN BEING CONFINED TO THE SRN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED AND THU AT WHICH TIME SEAS THERE WILL BE AROUND 9-10 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER AT 30N66W WITH A RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING E. SLY RETURN FLOW...AS INDICATED BY THE 1542 UTC ASCAT PASS... HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT MON AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N68W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED... AND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO ERN CUBA BY LATE THU. HOWEVER...A SECOND NW SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN WATERS THU. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING W TO NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU WITH SW 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT OVER THE NW WATERS THU. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRID FOR THIS ZONE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON FROM 22N TO 27N W OF 94W...GMZ011 AND GMZ017. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W THROUGH SUN EVENING....AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE