000 AGXX40 KNHC 201836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF FROM W OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W TO 24N84W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED LIGHT TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND MAINLY MODERATE N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WEST AND 2-4 FT ACROSS THE EAST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW HIGH PRES SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MON. UPON ARRIVAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE BUILDING HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO S OF BERMUDA BY LATE WED INTO THU. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AND THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE E-SE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION EVEN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY FRI...RACING EASTWARD AND REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FRI EVENING...CLEARING THE GULF WATERS BY LATE SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A LATE MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 25 KT INDICATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DESPITE THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED MAGNITUDES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING UP FOR THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT THE TIMING OF THE PASS WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE NORMAL LULL IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ENDED PREMATURELY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 7-10 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU... ALTHOUGH BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SPREAD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE HIGH/RIDGE BACKING OFF TO THE NE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1021 MB LOW PRES SW OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SW THROUGH 29N75W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA. N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE BOUNDARY WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS E OF THE BOUNDARY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS INDICATE THAT THE DETERMINISTIC WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE IS YET AGAIN 2-3 FT TOO LOW WITH A BUOY 120 NM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AS IS BUOY 41047 SE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE MORNING...FROM 31N61W TO 27N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING...STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SE WATERS THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE E ALONG 32N. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI...SPREADING EASTWARD BY LATE FRI AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE E WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THE NW WATERS DOORSTEP. THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY STRETCH FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING...THEN FROM 31N59W TO THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 28N...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY