000 AGXX40 KNHC 150757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON'S BAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT E ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH LATE WED...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THU AND FRI. THIS WILL PROVIDE A STRONG REINFORCEMENT TO A FRONT STALLED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE FOLLOWING SREF OUTPUT SHOWING NW TO N REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 26N OFF TAMAULIPAS BY EARLY WED...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH OFF VERACRUZ AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 17 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF. MEANWHILE THE REINVIGORATED FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE SE GULF BY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRI WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW E OF 60W BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRES ANCHORED NEAR 32N68W AND DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. BUOYS INDICATED THAT RELATED N TO NE SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS E OF 70W...BUT ARE SUBSIDING. W OF 60W LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 22N...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 22N. A 0140 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM VESSELS C6VG7 AND C6RN3 INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE LOW PRES E OF THE AREA WEAKENS. SE TO S RETURN FLOW OFF NE FLORIDA WILL VEER MORE S TO SW BY LATE THU AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH N FLORIDA. GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE DEPICTING A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING OF THE COAST TO NEAR 31N75W BY EARLY FRI...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. THE MODELS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 30N LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL TO 10 FT OVER THE TROP ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT FROM N TO S THROUGH WED. SIMILARLY N SWELL TO 7 FT PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH LATE THU...THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY LATE FRI BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING EXPECTED GMZ017 FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W WED. .GALE WARNING EXPECTED GMZ023 S OF 22N W OF 94W THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN