000 AGXX40 KNHC 070732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EST MON JAN 07 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0248 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 25 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL COAST. BOTH THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE 5 KT TOO WEAK HERE INITIALLY...SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA BY TONIGHT AND THEN RETROGRADE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SW N ATLC. BY TOMORROW...THE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL VERE THE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY WED THAN THE GFS. IT CARRIES A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS AND BUILDS SEAS TO 10 FT. THE 0000 UTC UKMET...WHICH IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ON THE GENERAL PATTERN...LOOKS MORE LIKE THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET WAVE MODELS DO NOT BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT DESPITE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LONG-FETCH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE WIND FIELD OF THE GFS/UKMET LOOKS REASONABLE...THEIR CORRESPONDING WAVE MODELS APPEAR 1-2 FT TOO LOW WED. APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING THE DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTER N-NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THU...CAUSING THE FRONT IN THE GULF TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DISSIPATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING N OF THE AREA. TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THIS REGION THROUGH TUE...WITH A RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY WED MORNING DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMA AS STRONG RIDGING RETURNS TO WESTERN ATLC. THE 0000 UTC GEFS DOES SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT 0600 UTC TUE MORNING AND THE DETERMINISTIC RUN ALSO SHOWS GALES...BUT THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN THE GEFS BUMPS THE CHANCE OF GALES UP TO 40 PERCENT. THE GALE HERE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRI. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTENSIFIES. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE THERE. THE 0000 UTC GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 31N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ONLY TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD AS IT DISSIPATES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 29N LATER TODAY...BUT THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT. THE 0410 OSCAT AS WELL AS THE 0108 AND 0246 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED S OF 22N FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. THESE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TUE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE N. A SOLID AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE FORECAST. THE 0000 UTC GFS FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE HERE UNTIL THU WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER NE WATERS. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE HERE TOWARD THE ECMWF FORECAST AS A RESULT. UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER