000 AGXX40 KNHC 020717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED JAN 02 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL RETRACT EASTWARD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SLOW...BUT CONTINUE E TODAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND NO LONGER SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE FAR S GULF ON FRI. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE AT 35 KT OVER THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MEANDERING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND REINFORCING N SURGE WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT NEAR 20N95W. POPULATED GRIDS WITH LATEST GFS WITH UPWARD TWEAKS PER SREF GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS WASHING OUT FROM 31N38W TO 20N60W. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 27N65W WILL SHIFT SE TO 26N61W TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH CENTER ALONG 26N. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR 26N62W LATE THU. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 25N62W LATE FRI WITH THE RIDGE ORIENTATION W OF THE TROUGH BECOMING E TO W ALONG 26N. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT BE BLOCKED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 31-32N FROM 55-78W WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT THEN TRAILING SW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AGAIN LATE THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E...WITH THE FRONT PASSING BERMUDA BUT ONLY MAKING AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA CHANNEL. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT EXTEND ALONG 27N LAT SAT. THEREAFTER GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS AT 28N80W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WITH THE LOW RACING NE SUN NIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVING THE FRONT E AGAIN MON. POPULATED GRIDS WITH GFS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO ALONG 27N MAINTAINING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS NEAR 12N75W SAT NIGHT. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. POPULATED GRIDS WITH GFS SOLUTION. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ023 FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON