000 AGXX40 KNHC 211927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF...BUT FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS STILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ ARE LIKELY BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A 1034 MB HIGH PRES AREA OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEK...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY MON...WITH A MINOR SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NE BEFORE IT REACHES THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUE. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE...AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SWEEPING SE AND REACHING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO 23N80W WILL SLOW AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLING BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE FROM 27N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN. STRONG SW WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH STRONG NW FOLLOWING IT ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...ALTHOUGH WINDS TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH N OF 25N THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 28N BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALSO ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS S OF 22N THROUGH SUN. THESE TRADES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FOR THE MOST PART STARTING MON AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E...LEAVING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WHOLE REGION INTO MID WEEK. LARGE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE SAT THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY SAT...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NE NICARAGUA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT RESURGE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD FROM 8 TO 14 FT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE THE INCREASED NE FLOW...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL START TO DIMINISH SUN INTO MON...WITH TRADES CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...LARGE N SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SLIP THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN