000 AGXX40 KNHC 281938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EST WED NOV 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM NEAR SARASOTA WSW THROUGH A LLVL VORT NEAR 23N88.5W TO STATIONARY PORTION MORPHING INTO THE USUAL COASTAL TROUGH OFF COOLER SHELF WATERS OF NE GULF AND ACROSS N FLORIDA ...AND THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 18Z AND APPEARS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY FO'S PER 12 PLANET CHAT TRAFFIC. NNE FLOW AROUND 15 KT CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS ACROSS NE QUAD OF BASIN WITH SEAS 4-5 FT AND EXPECTED TO BUILD 4-6 FT BY 00Z...WITH MORE NELY FLOW ACROSS NW QUAD AND SEAS NOW 3-4 FT. 12Z SEAS STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED WW3 ABOUT 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS THE N HALF OF BASIN THIS MORNING AND 2-3 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS NEAR AND W OF STATIONARY PORTION. 1032 MB HIGH ACROSS MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT ENE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW FLOW TO VEER MORE NE TO E ACROSS MOST OF BASIN...AND WASH OUT DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...WHILE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO ATLC JUST OFF HATTERAS BY FRI EVE WHILE WEAKENING. DECENT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED N OF FRONTAL REMNANTS ACROSS SE PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND YIELD WINDS 15-20 KT S OF 27N E OF 85W WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. REINFORCING HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NW ATLC FRI THROUGH WEEKEND TO INCREASE PRES GRADIENT..AND WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE STRAITS DURING THIS TIME FOR ENHANCED FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS AND SEAS WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... WINDS AND SEA ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH S CENTRAL FLORIDA DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 30N. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT...AS GRADIENT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN ENE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PASSAGES...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 31N69W TO NEAR PALM BEACH ATTM...WITH N TO NNW FLOW AROUND 15 KT BEHIND FRONT...AND SEAS 4-5 FT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH FREEPORT TO ROUGHLY BOYTON BEACH BY 00Z...THEN FROM 28N65W TO FT LAUDERDALE BY 12Z THU...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 26N65W THROUGH THE STRAITS BY 12Z FRI...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHEARLINE SLIGHTLY S OF THAT POSITION BY 12Z SAT. HIGH PRES SHIFTING TOWARD THE E COAST OF U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH THU WILL INCREASE GRADIENT N OF BOUNDARY FOR NELY FLOW 20-25 KT N OF BOUNDARY...THEN AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF COAST THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...GRADIENT FLOW BECOMES CONFINED TO 150-200 NM ZONE N OF BOUNDARY IN CLASSIC SHEARLINE PATTERN. REINFORCING HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND LIKELY TO EXPAND AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO MUCH OF AREA NW OF SHEARLINE...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 4-7 THROUGH BAHAMAS AND ACROSS BAHAMA BANKS. FURTHER EAST...MID ATLC TROUGH TO BEGIN TO CARVE INTO LLVLS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INDUCE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING AT SFC ALONG 48W...SHIFTING E TO ALONG 45W DURING THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY ATTM AND REPERCUSSIONS TO THE W IN TERMS OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT WIND-WAVE FIELD WERE USED IN THIS FCST PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING