000 AGXX40 KNHC 161700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF A BUILDING 1031 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVER MOST OF THE GULF. LOW STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF WITH FAIRLY COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BASE OF A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS POISED CUTOFF OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THROUGH SAT...WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORMING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NE FLOW OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT...BETWEEN THE FORMING SURFACE TROUGH OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE REINFORCED HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN MON INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SAGS SOUTH AND THE TROUGHING LIFTS NE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY DATA INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO WESTERN PANAMA. CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA AND JAMAICA. E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BUOYS INDICATE N TO NE SWELL STILL COVERS THE WATERS N OF 18N. RIDGING OVER N CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PULSES OF FRESH SWELL 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH SAT...POSSIBLY WITH TRADES 20 KT OR GREATER PUSHING W OF 55W TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS...THEN SUBSIDING AFTERWARD AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE NE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. BUOYS ARE INDICATING THE AREA COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT HAS RETRACTED NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS S OF 29N LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH BUOY...A 15 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND AT LEAST ONE SHIP REPORT INDICATED WINDS ARE REACHING 20 KT N OF 30N. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WHILE BROAD LOW PRES FORMS OVER SW N ATLC WATERS NW OF THE BAHAMAS BY SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW NE WINDS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA TO INCREASE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A BROAD CLOSED SURFACE LOW FORMING MON AND TUE N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SAME AREA. REGARDLESS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A PATTERN THAT HOLDS THE MAIN AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN