000 AGXX40 KNHC 281959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WSW THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO NEAR VERACRUZ. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND WILL RELAX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH NW WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT THERE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. MAX SEAS OF 9 FT ELSEWHERE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED...AND CONTINUING INTO FRI MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HURRICANE SANDY IS WELL N OF THE BASIN...HOWEVER ITS VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY LARGE SEAS OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY THU AND FRI. FOR THIS FORECAST INTO DAY 3...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND CORRESPONDING WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF WAVEWATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE LARGE SEAS ARE LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF SANDY. AFTER DAY 3...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL AFFECT ALL WATERS N OF 24N THROUGH MON MORNING. LARGE SWELL IMPACTING NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE RATHER SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE THROUGH WED. THIS SWELL INITIALLY WILL HAVE ENOUGH WLY COMPONENT TO REACH W COASTAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...ABOUT 8-10 FT AT 15-17 SEC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT...THEN FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA MON AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF SANDY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FRESH S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE FURTHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS SANDY MOVES FARTHER N. AS OF 18 UTC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N82W SW TO INLAND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH AND DRIER N-NW WINDS WILL BE EVIDENT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. NW SWELL SPREADING OUTWARD FROM SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH MON WHILE INCREASING...AND REACH THE W COASTS OF FAR N LEEWARD ISLANDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...ZONES AMZ111-113-115. .HURRICANE WARNING...ZONE AMZ115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE