000 AGXX40 KNHC 150814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 414 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE WEAKENING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF PAST 6 HOURS AS NW ATLC HIGH HAS SHIFTED E TO 55W...AND PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...TUTT AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO GULF OF HONDURAS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED NELY FLOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SE GULF...STRAITS...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM...AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0326Z SUGGESTED WINDS STILL NE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THIS AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE TO 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THIS AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE...BUT REMAIN NE TO NNE AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED TO RAFAEL BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FAR SW N ATLC...BAHAMAS...AND EXTEND ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT AREAS. COLD FRONT NEARING COASTAL SE TEXAS AND NW GULF COASTS WILL LOSE UPPER SUPPORT TODAY...WITH WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE BASIN TODAY. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG W END OF FRONT AS IT SNAGS ALONG MID TEXAS COAST...WITH SOME SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG BOUNDARY E OF 85W. AM FOLLOWING GFS SOLUTION WITH E PORTION OF FRONT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 12Z TUE...BUT PREFER THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS FOR W PORTION OF BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG SE TEXAS COAST TUE-EARLY WED BEFORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WED AND REMNANTS LIFT N AND INLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SINK INTO NW GULF THU NIGHT...AND GFS HAS GRADUALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...NOW WITH NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFFSHORE OF UPPER TEXAS AND S LA...BUT WEAKENING BY FRI EVENING AS BOUNDARY SINKS S TO NEAR 24N ACROSS W PORTIONS. LIMITED FETCH AREA AND TIME WILL LIMIT WAVE GROWTH TO AROUND 6 FT BEHIND BOUNDARY. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GRADIENT RELAXING QUICKLY ACROSS SW N ATLC AND WINDS TO THE N OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. HOWEVER...LONG NELY FETCH HAS GENERATED CONSIDERABLE WAVE FIELD DOMINATING THE AREA WATERS...WITH BUOYS REPORTING PEAK PERIODS 9-11 SECS. SEAS STILL 5-7 FT OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA...INCREASING TO 8-11 FT EXTENDING ENE TO 70W AND BEYOND. SE SWELL GENERATED FROM RECENT DAYS AS RAFAEL HAS LIFTED OUT OF CARIBBEAN IS NOW BEGINNING TO MIX WITH THIS NE SWELL FROM 26N TO 29N E OF 73W...AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO EXPAND 12 FT SEA RADII OF RAFAEL TO BEYOND 360 NM IN NW QUAD. SMALL SWELL FROM RAFAEL WILL HIT FLORIDA COASTS TONIGHT... AND BEGIN TO IMPACT SE AND MID ATLC COASTS LATE MON AND TUE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE STATES THIS MORNING WILL REACH N FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE NW OF RAFAEL WOULD SEEM POISED TO REACH FLORIDA TODAY...BUT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HALTED BY APPROACHING FRONT AND SHUNTED TO THE NE TONIGHT AND TUE. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL BEGINNING TO WRAP UP THIS MORNING AS SHEAR IS RELAXING SUFFICIENTLY...AND APPEARS TO BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT FORECASTS...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOTION THAN GFS...AND WILL MOVE NNW THEN RECURVE TO THE NNE...BRUSHING ERN ZONES TODAY AND TUE. AGAIN...LARGE WAVE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD WIND FIELD AND NE WIND SWELL EVENT JUST TO THE NW OF THIS WILL MIX TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT TO PRODUCE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 75W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP COPIOUS RAINFALL ON NE CARIB ISLANDS TODAY BEFORE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS N AND NE TONIGHT INTO TUE. HOWEVER...PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD SEE AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION TODAY AS LLVL CONVERGENCE IMPROVES IN WSW FLOW. LIMITED WAVE GROWTH ACROSS WRN SEMICIRCLE OF RAFAEL IS PRODUCING ONLY MODEST NLY SWELL FOR PR/USVI ATTM AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY BEFORE FADING QUICKLY TUE. STRONG S TO SW FLOW AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS AND N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT AS RAFAEL BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. OTHERWISE A VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FALLING TO 3 FT OR LESS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ025. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ119...AMZ121...AMZ125...AMZ127. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING