000
AGXX40 KNHC 111058
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS MAINTAINS STEADY MODERATE 
NE WIND FLOW ACROSS BASIN E OF 92W AND A FRESH E-SE BREEZE W OF 
92W THROUGH LATE THU.  DEEPENING LOW PRES OFF E COAST OF FLORIDA 
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN U.S. TIGHTENS 
PRES GRADIENT OVER EASTERN GULF ZONES INCREASING WINDS TO A  
FRESH NE BREEZE E OF 87W LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SUN.  HIGH PRES 
MOVES E ON MON AND WINDS DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N72W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 25N72W TO 
29N70W.  TROUGH MOVES E THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN.  TIGHT 
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER 
EASTERN CONUS PROMPTS FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE W OF TROUGH 
THROUGH SUN.  HIGH PRES MOVES E AND DIMINISH WINDS TO A MODERATE 
BREEZE BY SUN.  WINDS DECREASE ON MON...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE 
PORTION BASIN WHERE FRESH NE WINDS AS LOW PRES OVER TROPICAL N 
ATLC APPROACHES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
WIND PATTERN CHANGING QUICKLY AS 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER... 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ENTERS TROPICAL N ATLC WITH STRONG 
WINDS AND NEAR TROPICAL STORM GUSTS TODAY.  STRONG NE WINDS E OF 
65W EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE THROUGH MON AS PER LOW PRES CENTER 
TRACK. SECOND LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB JUST E OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
DRIFT NE TODAY THROUGH SUN.  DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS CASE WITH WIDE APART... 
ALMOST COMPLETELY OPPOSITE...SOLUTIONS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES 
LOW PRES NE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ZONE MOVING 
INTO BASIN TODAY. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES