000 AGXX40 KNHC 101832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY NEAR 28N83W TO 27N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE MORNING THEN DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. THE E PORTION OF THE THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S...REACHING S FLORIDA TUE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS LATE WED AND THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WED THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING FRI. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 4-6 FT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY T.S. LESLIE LOCATED N OF AREA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY THEN SUBSIDE QUICKLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO 28N80W THEN CONTINUES W AS STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS N-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N TO 67W. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N63W TO 27N70W TO 27N80W TUE MORNING AND FROM 31N62W TO 26N70W TO 26N80W TUE EVENING...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY S FROM 31N61W TO 25N70W TO 25N80W WED MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY E OF 75W TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N37W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMED LATER TODAY. E TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WEATHER PATTER IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS 6-9 FT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN...AS IS FADES NEXT 36 HRS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N36W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N37W. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BASED ON THE MARINE GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NW BEFORE REACHING 55W AND NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CARIB. HOWEVER...AS IT TURNS NW WED AND THU...A WEAKENING GRADIENT TO THE W AND ACROSS THE BASIN WILL WEAKEN WINDS BY THU...WITH MAX OF AROUND 20 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/SS