000 AGXX40 KNHC 311835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS...IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC...NEAR ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER IS PRODUCING MAINLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT IN ELSEWHERE. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT SW...AND BUILD OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT. RIDGING WILL SETTLE ALONG 25N/26N SUN THROUGH TUE... MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND LIGHT SW WINDS N OF THE AXIS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 2 FT OR LESS PREVAILING BY TUE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED BETWEEN THE GEORGIA COAST AND BERMUDA SAT THROUGH TUE...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERN FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...NOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE SAT MORNING. IT WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT AND SUN...AND IS FORECAST TO RECURVE N ALONG 62N/63N THROUGH TUE AS A HURRICANE. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM OR HIGHER WINDS FROM LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF 65W...SWELLS GENERATED FROM LESLIE WILL RAISE SEAS TO 10-14 FT OVER THE SE WATERS BY LATE SUN WITH HIGHER SEAS PROBABLY IN THE 10-16 FT RANGE E OF 70W BY LATE MON INTO TUE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...NOW CENTERED NEAR 16N49W. LESLIE WILL MOVE TO THE WNW...PASSING 55W SAT...AS A HURRICANE BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...AND TRACK NW TO WITHIN 270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE LEEWARD ISLAND WILL BE THE SWELLS GENERATING BY LESLIE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING SEAS TO AROUND 14 FT BY LATE SAT AND TO NEAR 16 FT BY SUN IN THE ATLC EXPOSURES. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ027 AND AMZ127 ZONES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ027 AND AMZ127...HURRICANE WARNING. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC