000 AGXX40 KNHC 310755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS OVER THE NW GULF REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE SE TO S...IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC...NOW OVER ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT IN ELSEWHERE. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT SW...AND BUILD OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT. RIDGING WILL SETTLE ALONG 25N/26N SUN THROUGH TUE...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND LIGHT SW WINDS N OF THE AXIS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 2 FT OR LESS PREVAILING BY TUE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND REMAIN CENTERED BETWEEN THE GEORGIA COAST AND BERMUDA SAT THROUGH TUE...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERN FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...NOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT SWEEPS TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT AND SUN...AND RECURVES N ALONG 60N THROUGH TUE AS A HURRICANE. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM OR HIGHER WINDS FROM LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF 65W...SE SWELL GENERATED FROM LESLIE WILL FAN WESTWARD WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT AND PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 SECONDS REACHING AS FAR W AS 70W BY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS WILL START TO DIMINISH IN AREAL EXTENT LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...NOW CENTERED NEAR 15N48W. LESLIE WILL MOVE TO THE WNW...PASSING 55W SAT...PROBABLY AS A HURRICANE...AND TRACK NW TO WITHIN 270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE ISLAND TO BE MINIMAL...BUT INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN