000 AGXX40 KNHC 111842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 26N WITH A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER AT 24N84W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 93.5W S OF 24N MOVING W AT ABOUT 16 KT. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TO EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT SW IN DIRECTION W OF 94W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE. THE BUOYS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE E OF 89W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 89W WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5 MAINTAINING OVERALL LITTLE CHANGES WITH CURRENT OBSERVED WIND AND SEA STATE CONDITIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER FRONT THU...BUT REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...AND TO INLAND MEXICO ON SUN WITH LITTLE EFFECT FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SW WATERS ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS...AT TIMES...OF 3-5 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE TO PERSIST INTO INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 3-4 FT THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N66W SW TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SE OF THE ATLC WATERS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING... AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 22 KT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SE OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E 15 KT WINDS S OF 23N E OF 67W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE S OF THE RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT S OF THE RIDGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. N OF THE RIDGE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE EXCEPT W OF 79W WHERE LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE OBSERVED. MUCH HIGHER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE OF T.D. SEVEN. ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BECOME STRETCHED NE TO SW THROUGH THU AS A LARGER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EASTERN ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD FORCING AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN BOTH RIDGES TO TRANSLATED NORTHWESTWARD AND SHEAR OUT THROUGH WED. THE SRN TAIL END OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL PINCH OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN SEA TUE THROUGH THU. WITH THIS SCENARIO SHAPING UP TO TAKE PLACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM 31N66W SW TO S FLORIDA WILL BE FORCED NWD TO NEAR 28N NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE PRESENT WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E WINDS S OF THE RIDGE SPREADING FURTHER WESTWARD ...AND WITH OCCASIONAL SPEED INCREASES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA SUN THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT THERE TIGHTENS SOME WITH THE WESTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THIS MORNING AT 15 UTC. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY POSITION OF THE WAVE HAS IT APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 22 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. SOME OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KT IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE 1318 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED NE 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE WAVE WILL BE FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SUN REACHING TO NEAR 68W SUN AFTERNOON...TO NEAR 73W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W BY LATE MON NIGHT...TO NEAR 82W TUE MORNING...NEAR 85W MON NIGHT AND TO W OF THE AREA WED. A TIGHT GRADIENT SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PRECEDED THE WAVE TO WITHIN 180 NM W OF IT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY ON WED. SEAS THERE WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT INTO MON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT TUE AND WED. BEGIND THE WAVE ...SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 15N-18N. THESE WINDS WILL BLEND IN WITH SE WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 15N E OF 72W THROUGH MON NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF WIND GUIDANCE...AND SHIFT TO W OF 70W BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH WED WHILE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT INTO THU. THE UKMET/NOGAPS INITIALED THE WAVE PSN FURTHER E THAN THE GFS/ECMWF THIS MORNING WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE N OF THE WAVE. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAN TOWARDS USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR WIND GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS WELL FOR THE FORECAST WAVE PSN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE RELATED TO A WEAK BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM ON THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE FAR NE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WED AND THU...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXPECTED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY N OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH SEAS AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE