000 AGXX40 KNHC 280844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PERSISTENT STATIONARY RIDGE SPANS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS COAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. PRES GRADIENT ON S PERIPHERY STRENGTHENS TODAY AS N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES BAY OF CAMPECHE...HOWEVER WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT ALONG WAVE. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ADVECTS SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN GULF FEEDING TROPICAL WAVE...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR MOSTLY INLAND MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES N OF AREA CONTINUES TIGHTENING GRADIENT AGAINST LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB OVER NW COLOMBIA. PRESENT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W BASIN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY ATLC LOW PRES CENTER. MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING WIND AND SEAS SOLUTION WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAST TOO MUCH IN SUBSIDE SEAS WHILE GFS MAY BE TOO SLOW TO LOWER SEAS. FORECAST FOLLOW UKMET AS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE. FIRST TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST ON SHORT TERM BUT ITS POSSIBLE EFFECTS ARE WEAK AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH BASIN. A SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE APPROACH TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATE SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT E OF AXIS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE THEN INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 31N67W TO 26N68W WEAKENS STATIONARY ATLC HIGH PRES FORCING IT TO RETREAT E AND DIMINISHING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS SPREAD OVER BASIN LATER TODAY EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CARIBBEAN INTRUDES INTO SW N ATLC. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH GFS SOLUTION SO FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS IT. SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH SE CORNER OF BASIN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SO AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS AND SEAS IS HINTED FOR TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES