000 AGXX40 KNHC 100544 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF ABOUT 1017 MB...DEVELOPING OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. A N-S TROUGH IS SETTING UP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE INTERMITTENT TSTMS ARE FLARING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FL STRAITS LATE WED...REACH ALONG 83W LATE THU...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE THE S-CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI AND SAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN PRECIP TO LINGER E OF THE THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THE SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE NW WATERS THU AND MOVE BACK N OF THE AREA ON FRI. THE ECMWF HOWEVER CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WED OVER THE W CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR S AS THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS PREFERRED MODEL. LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS STALLED FRONTAL POSITION IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. BLENDED IN A SMALL PERCENT OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL FL WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN LIFT N TO ALONG 30N ON WED... AND SHIFT N OF AREA THU...THEN REMAIN N OF AREA FRI-SAT. SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...WHILE ELY WINDS S OF 22N W OF 68W WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH WED...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 25N ALONG 68W WILL REACH THE SE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS WED NIGHT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED S OF 23N IN THE E ATLC AND WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 55W ON FRI AND ALONG 61W ON SAT. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE N OF 17N WILL PASS THROUGH THE HISPANIOLA AREA TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WED-THU NIGHT. ELY TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W AND 77W...WITH ELY 20 KT WINDS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. THE TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 18N E OF 58W...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BRIEFLY AGAIN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THU-SAT AS THE EASTERLIES DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 15 KT OVER THE WATERS W OF 82W AND ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 65W. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AGAIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC LATE THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE REACHES ALONG 55W ON FRI AND ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. BLENDED LATEST GFS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON