000 AGXX40 KNHC 031855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF...AND HAS SHIFTED WITH THE ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY NW TO NEAR 27N84W...AND REMAINS WEAKLY CONNECTED TO NWD SHIFTING ATLC RIDGE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 88W WHERE SW-W WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE NOTED. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT W OF 93W...AND 1-2 FT E OF 93W. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE KEEPING HOLD ON WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRESENTLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON AND WILL ENHANCE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE WHICH MAY SPREAD W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT WED. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR AND NOAA WAVEWATCH FOR GUIDANCE AS IT IS VERIFYING WELL WITH SEAS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS PART OF THE ATLC IS THE WELL DEFINED JULY ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND SW TO N CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND VICINITY FLORIDA MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THROUGH THU...AND TO 29N FRI THROUGH SUN. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA BUILD TO 6-7 FT WED THROUGH FRI WITH POSSIBLE SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED POCKETS OF 8 FT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT SAT AND SUN. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER IN THE 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 77W. WILL FOLLOW THE NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE S OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN IS NEAR 79W. IT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER ERN CUBA HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON WED AS IT IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 26N72W SW TO ERN CUBA AND OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NWD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ...AND IS MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND W OF THE CARIBBEAN SAT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BRUSH THE FAR SRN WATERS AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE WILL HELP INITIATE AN INCREASE OF ELY WINDS ACROSS THE SAME SRN ATLC WATERS AS WELL. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BOTH ASCAT DATA FROM JUST PAST 15 UTC THIS MORNING AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA...AND MODERATE ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W MOVING ABOUT 17 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST SE OF JAMAICA EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO THIS LOW AND S TO NEAR 12N77W. CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER JAMAICA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ON E SIDE OF LOW...EVEN THOUGH TPW ANIMATION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO BE S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ALSO AIDED BY WEAKER LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY W AND REACH 80W/81W TONIGHT...82W WED MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY WED EVENING. THE BROAD AREA OF ELY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...AND EXTENDING N TO JUST ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WITHIN THIS WIND AREA ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT...WITH AS HIGH AS 12 FT S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-75W DUE TO THE LONG AND EXTENDED FETCH OF THE WINDS. WINDS THERE WILL BE 25-30 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY WED NIGHT AS IT IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF COLOMBIA. THE LONG AND EXTENDED FETCH OF FRESH TRADES WILL BUILD SEAS 10-12 FT BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCES ARE COMING INTO GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 12 FT IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE SEA S OF ABOUT 15N W OF 72W WED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU. THE WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER VALUES SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN NOW THE UKMET AND ECMWF GUIDANCES ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH THE SEA HEIGHT VALUES VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS WHEN THEY WERE THE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING MUCH LOWER SEA VALUES. WITH THE ATLC RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED...A LONG FETCH OF NE TO E TRADES WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS MAINTAINING SEAS 6-7 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. SURGES IN THE TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH ELY IMPULSES AND TROPICAL WAVES WILL RAISE WINDS 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT AND SEAS 7-8 FT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AREAS OF 9 FT MAINLY IN THE FAR ERN FRINGES OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS IN THE FAR ERN ATLC. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THIS WAVE MAY REACH ALONG 41W BY LATE THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. 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