000 AGXX40 KNHC 020752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 27N86W...AND HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY NW PAST 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS WEAKLY CONNECTED TO NWD SHIFTING ATLC RIDGE. A 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE SE-S WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...WITH THE EVENING YUCATAN TROUGH SHIFTING W OFF OF THE PENINSULA WITH ELY WINDS 20 KT OFF OF THE NW COAST. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS 5-6 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...REFLECTING THE 15-20 KT SELY FLOW OF SUNDAY THAT HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED NW WITH UPPER LOW AND WILL OCCUR WELL INLAND TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH WED NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WNW ACROSS THE E AND NE GULF YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE EVENING YUCATAN TROUGH WILL YIELD WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT. OTHERWISE...MILD WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING AND ENHANCE THE EVENING CONVECTION THERE WHICH COULD BECOME FORMIDABLE AS IT SHIFTS W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT WED. GFS WINDS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE BLENDED SLIGHTLY WITH THE ECMWF. WWIII OUTPUT LOOKED A BIT LOW ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WW ENSEMBLE MEAN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... AS TYPICAL FOR JULY...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BASIN AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC WSW TO 60W AND THEN W ALONG 27N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO 28N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW ELY TRADES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT BY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BUILD SEAS 5-7 FT. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL OTHERWISE....WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY FOR ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND COULD AFFECT ADJACENT ATLC WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ATLC AT 20-25 KT AND REACH PUERTO RICO WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH ELY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...AND WILL BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 70W MOVES W ACROSS THE BASIN IN TANDEM WITH THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF. TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS S OF 16N ATTM...BUT A SECONDARY IMPULSE AND LLVL WIND SURGE WITH THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIB ATTM AND INDUCING CONVERGENCE. WITH SAL BEHIND THIS SURGE...SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SECONDARY SURGE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY W AND REACH 75W THIS EVENING THEN 81/82W BY TUE EVENING AND INTO THE YUCATAN BY WED EVENING. A BROAD FIELD OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXTENDING N TO OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT...AND 11-12 FT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA SHOULD REACH 30 KT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. AS THE WAVE REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN WED...THE LONG AND EXTENDED FETCH OF FRESH TRADES WILL BUILD SEAS 10-12 FT BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. HAVE USED THE GFS AGAIN WITH A SLIGHT BLENDING OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET. WWIII REMAINS A FOOT OR SO LOW WITH THIS EVENT AND HAVE USED THE WW ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR PEAK SEAS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WELL E OF THE FORECAST ZONES WILL RACE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ATLC AND REACH THE FAR ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS FROM THIS MORNING AND ECMWF FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT AGREED THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER EVIDENT NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SW ATLC WILL SHIFT N THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A SWD SURGE OF FAR ERN ATLC HIGH PRES HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ELY TRADES BEHIND THE WAVE. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT WITH SEAS TO MOSTLY 8 FT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 9 FT BEHIND THIS WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FT. HAVE USED WW ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE AS WELL...YIELDING A BROAD FIELD OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN ENE SWELL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING