000 AGXX40 KNHC 221812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF TO 1000 MB OR LOWER BY MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE GFS BECOMES AN OUTLIER AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO CARRY THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CARRY THE LOW WESTWARD TO TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO AT VARIOUS SPEEDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE RIDDLED BY GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THE NE SIDE OF THE GULF LOW THAT APPEAR TO BE DRAGGING IT EASTWARD MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SUPPORT IN THE 06Z GEFS FOR THE EASTERN GFS SOLUTION AND EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN HINTED AT MEMBERS THAT SKEW EAST...MOVING AT LEAST SOME SORT OF WAVE ACROSS N FL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HERE. THE GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER N FL AND INTO THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING FOR SOME ENERGY TO BE SHED NE FROM THE MAIN LOW IN THE GULF. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WERE SCALED BACK COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE IN THE SW N ATLC. THE 1 PM EDT NHC/HPC CONCALL RESULTED IN AN AGREED TRACK THAT TAKES THE LOW N TO NEAR 28N90W ON WED MORNING AND THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM W...MOVING TO NEAR 27N94W BY FRI MORNING. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. A BLEND OF THE 21/12Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS WAS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION. CONSIDERABLE HAND EDITING WAS NECESSARY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL CONTROL THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC THAT WILL DRIVE THE TRADE WINDS. FRESH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PUMPING MOISTURE TOWARD THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY PLENTIFUL JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PREFERRED SOLN KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA LATE MON AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TUE. THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX SHUD BE A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED NE BY A PASSING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE GFS TO CARRY ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS DRAGS THE GULF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH DESPITE BEING WEAKER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE TROUGHING. THE REASON APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO FEEDBACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE RIDDLED BY GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THE NE SIDE OF THE GULF LOW THAT APPEAR TO BE DRAGGING IT EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SUPPORT IN THE 06Z GEFS FOR THE EASTERN GFS SOLUTION AND EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN HINTED AT MEMBERS THAT SKEW EAST...MOVING AT LEAST SOME SORT OF WAVE ACROSS N FL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HERE. THE GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER N FL AND INTO THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING FOR SOME ENERGY TO BE SHED NE FROM THE MAIN LOW IN THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WERE SCALED BACK COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON A MORE CONSOLIDATED GULF LOW. THIS SOLN IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH GENERATES 30 KT WINDS OFF NE FL BY MON MORNING THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER