000 AGXX40 KNHC 150804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE SE WINDS TO 20 KT...BETWEEN 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO 29N88W. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL STACKED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE FAR NE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE AS YET IN THE SURFACE DATA. FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE MIGRATING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC OF T.S CARLOTTA CHURNING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE PACIFIC. LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER YUCATAN HAS DIMINISHED...BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH LATE SAT IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH BREAKING DOWN AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH MIGRATING WEST FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI...AND SUPPORT E 15 TO 20 KT FLOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY BY SUN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...AND COMES INTO PHASE WITH A STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO TEXAS BY MON...AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS ALLOWS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AND TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FT MON TO 4 TO 6 FT TUE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE INCREASE E TO SE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEAS AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSIST BETWEEN 1020 MB ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE LEEWARDS NEAR 24N60W...AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MSLP IS CLOSER TO 1010 MB. A 0208 UTC ASCAT PASS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...BUT WITH HIGHER PEAK WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF. SEAS AT BUOY 42055 NEAR 15N75W ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 8 FT. THE GFS INITIALIZES WELL WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS REFLECTS THE STRONGER GFS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W/60W NEAR BARBADOS WILL MOVE W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO N CENTRAL VENEZUELA. CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET TEND TO DAMPEN OUT THE WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AS IT MOVES W TODAY AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AREA WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MOST COHESIVE PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AS IT PUSHES W. THE WAVE WILL BECOME LESS DISTINCT BY SUN AS IT INTERACTS WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF HINT THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL SPLIT FROM THE WAVE AND DRIFT WNW FROM THE LEEWARDS TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN. THE GFS SHOWS THE TRADES DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUN THROUGH TUE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDING AS WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROP ATLC WATERS W OF 55W LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. ENSEMBLE MWW3/FNMOC WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 06 UTC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH TONIGHT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT MIXES OUT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONT AND A SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 70W N OF 22N. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 31N70W. BUOY DATA OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS SHOW NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT N OF 31N. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW THE LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 1011 MB AND DRIFTING TO 31N65W BY LATE TODAY. SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A MODEL BLEND FAVOR STRONGER GFS SHOWING 20 KT NE FLOW PUSHING AS FAR S AS 28N W OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW PRES GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN. S TO SW WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL ALSO FORM JUST TO THE E OF THE LOW THROUGH LATE SAT. A 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 24N60W WILL WEAKEN AS TROUGHING MIGRATES THROUGH THE LEEWARDS THROUGH SAT...BUT REBUILD ALONG 24N BY SUN AND LIFT N TO 28N BY TUE. FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE TROUGH MIGRATING NW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN...BEFORE CONTINUING TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN