000 AGXX40 KNHC 140732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NE GULF TODAY THOUGH FRI...DISSIPATING BY SAT. THE 00Z GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND FORCES 20 KT WINDS ON ITS N SIDE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN THE LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER GEORGIA. IT DIMINISHES THE LOW BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z UKMET ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW...BUT WAITS UNTIL AFTERNOON TO INCREASE WINDS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW FRI AND DIMINISHES IT TO A TROUGH BY FRI EVENING AND WAITS UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING TO FORCE 20 KT WINDS IN THE NE GULF. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 20 KT WINDS...BUT IT CARRIES THE SYSTEM W MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND INCREASES WINDS TO 25 KT N OF THE REMAINING TROUGH BY SAT AFTERNOON UNLIKE THE GFS/ECMWF. THE COMPROMISE GFS/ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUITY THAN THE STRONGER UKMET...BUT WILL CALL FOR THE ONSET OF 20 KT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E AND ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN POTENTIALLY INTERACT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGHING AND RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF BRINGS FRESH SE FLOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHILE THE UKMET TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT EARLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND HERE WHICH KEEPS REASONABLE CONTINUITY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N84W TO 11N75W AND RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO PROPERLY INITIALIZE THE 25 KT WINDS SEEN BY THE ASCAT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TOWARD ITS STRONGER WINDS HERE COMPARED TO CONTINUITY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC WILL LIFT TO THE N THROUGH MON AS A BROAD MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MIGRATION OF THIS MID LEVEL GYRE NORTHWARD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN TOWARD BELIZE BY TUE. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NUDGED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HERE FOR NOW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU INTO FRI...MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON GYRE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TODAY. THE ANCHOR LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES NEAR 38N72W AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH N FL. THE MODELS NO LONGER CARRY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF NE FL LIKE THE RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE ANCHOR LOW WILL FUJIWARA BY FRI/SAT. THE DETAILS ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE TWO VORT MAXES AND THEIR TRACKS IS UP IN THE AIR. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ON A LOW NEAR 30N65W AT 16/00Z. THEN...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING THE SYSTEM...BUT DIVERGE MORE BY SUN WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS GENERALLY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER