000 AGXX40 KNHC 100713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS DIRECTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS E SIDE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH SOUTH WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED BY MULTIPLE SHIPS...BUOYS...AND PLATFORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING BUOY 42001. THIS DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO CARRYING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND INLAND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A STRONGER H85 TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE STRONGER GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE 00Z GFS AND WAVEWATCH MATCH THE WIND AND SEA OBSERVATIONS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETTER THAN THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED NORTHWARD BY THE TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE STRONGER GFS APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE WIND FIELD AROUND THE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH A VORTICITY CENTER E OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 40W. THE GFS CARRIES 25 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY MON NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS HERE...SO CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE FORECAST RATHER THAN JUMPING ON THE OUTLIER GFS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITS NEAR 32N73W. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THIS LOW THROUGH MON. THE MODELS BREAK OFF A PIECE OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RETROGRADE IT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR THROUGH MON. BY TUE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH SHIFTING NE TO THE MID ATLC COAST ON ITS W SIDE AND A DEEPENING...RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON ITS E SIDE. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TO MOVE THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO NW FORECAST WATERS. WHILE A CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS IS PREFERRED BY THU...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS MINIMAL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER