000 AGXX40 KNHC 090652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIFT N AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG 26N AND THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THE FRONT MOVES N-NE FROM THE NW GULF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS DIRECTING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER THE SE GULF AND NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW THROUGH MON. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE BREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN...WITH THE GFS A BIT STRONGER. THEY ALSO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN. OVERALL...THE GFS LOOKS SERVICEABLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 25 KT WINDS IT GENERATES EARLY SUN IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND A MODERATE BREEZE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE 00Z GFS AND WAVEWATCH ARE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS JUST NE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST HERE THROUGH MON AS THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE HERE. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA IS SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SUN MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. ITS PASSAGE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN ITS WAKE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST HERE ASIDE FROM BEEFING UP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR COLOMBIA. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER N WATERS HAS FINALLY RECEIVED A KICK AND IS PROGRESSING SE AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LIES FROM 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N64W TO 28N74W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DOMINANT LOW PRES DEEPENING JUST N OF THE AREA LATE SAT AND CARRYING THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA SUN. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT THAT WILL LINGER N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS WELL AS WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS SUN. BY SUN NIGHT...THE MODELS BREAK OFF A PIECE OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RETROGRADE IT INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS ACCEPTABLE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER