000 AGXX40 KNHC 051733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE GULF WATERS IS MERGING WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE FL STRAITS THEN TURNS NW TO THE NW COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON WED ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH TO DIP S INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY THU A BROAD TROUGH WILL COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING E ON FRI AND SAT. IN THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. USED GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 08N70W. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N ALONG 56W WILL REACH TO ALONG ABOUT 63W BEFORE BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON FRI AND SAT MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT ARE LOCATED ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING FROM 30N56W TO 24N66W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS WITH FRESH SW KT WINDS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND STALL ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF FRONT SO WILL AVERAGE THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL