000 AGXX40 KNHC 241835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY SOUTH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT CAN BE FOUND. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 23N W OF 94W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT FRI MORNING AND LESS TO 20 KT SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF WATERS HAS STARTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW PRES ALONG IT MOVED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA BAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES HAS ALREADY MOVED N OF THE AREA. SURFACE DATA AND THE LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BROAD WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SAT...THEN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AMPLIFIED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N-NE TO NEAR 31N78W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MOVED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA BAY LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SE FLORIDA SHOWED VERY WELL THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAINLY S OF 27N W OF 75W AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST ASCAT PASS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE COMPLEX TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE FLORIDA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BE NEAR 30N76W BY FRI MORNING...AND N OF THE AREA BY FRI EVENING...THEN SHIFT BACK SW INTO THE FORECAST WATERS LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN...REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR