000
AGXX40 KNHC 200657
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS JUST N OF THE AREA. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...CMAN 
STATIONS...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT TO 
GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS N PART OF THE AREA WITH SEAS 
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS AND MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE 
S PART OF THE AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. MODELS REMAIN 
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE GULF 
WATERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE 
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH 
THIS SCENARIO...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT 
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... 
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. A 
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AROUND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT AND MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL 
AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. THE MODELS 
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC 
SITUATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE 
FAR NW PART OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE 
AREA FROM 31N78W TO 27N78W. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS ALONG 28N E OF 70W. FRESH 20 KT WINDS PREVAIL E OF 70W 
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA. THE CURRENT TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS THE 
FEATURE DRIFTING SLOWLY SW TODAY...THEN MOVING NE AND FURTHER 
FROM THE AREA MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE 
AREA TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE N 
OF 29N W OF 79W...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR 
THAT AREA SUN NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEAK 
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

ATLANTIC...
.AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N W OF 79W SUN NIGHT.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL