000 AGXX40 KNHC 171841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PESKY SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE-E AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. IN-SITU BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ACCOMPANIED BY 1-3 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY AND FINALLY NUDGE THE TROUGH TO THE E OUT OF THE GULF WATERS TO ACROSS FLORIDA BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NE-E BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH NE-E 10-15 KT AND 1-3 FT SEAS DOMINATING THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH/RIDGING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH ALL THE WAY TO 80W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL BECOMING E-SE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS VICINITY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVENTUALLY MOVING NW TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAKER AND BROADER LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N53W TO SURINAME. A MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION PRESENT WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO THE NW TOWARD PUERTO RICO. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... REPORTS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. COPIOUS MOISTURE COVERS THIS REGION AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. THIS JET CONTINUES TO PUMP UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO THE SE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCRAPE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX PATTERN IS DEVELOPING WITH THE TROUGH REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL STALL FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW MAINLY W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST N OF 26N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY