000 AGXX40 KNHC 140807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 407 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A FEW DYING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E CENTRAL GULF PRECEDE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N88W TO 22N92W. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF IS MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK FRONT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRI...AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT WILL VEER MORE SE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 18N AND W OF 55W. BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9 FT IN THE STEADY E FLOW...BUT IT IS LIKELY HIGHER IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE TO 12 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY. A 0412 OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. THE STRONG WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA...AND LOWER PRES NEAR PANAMA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM PANAMA TO NEAR SWAN ISLAND. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS...BUT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL STILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE STRONGER WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE WED DUE IN PART TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTS FAVORS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVEWATCH WITH THE UK AND EC WAVE MODELS AND KEEPS PEAK OF THE SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 9 FT WED NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. THE TROUGH WEAKENS THU ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N65W. HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA IS PROMOTING FRESH NE FLOW N OF 26N THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO EASTERN FLORIDA. THE SHEAR LINE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MON THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...SHOWING A LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR 31N75W FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER AND INDICATES THE WEAK LOW WILL PUSH TO NEAR BERMUDA BY LAST SAT. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED NE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 75W STARTING LATE FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN