000 AGXX40 KNHC 071805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 27N/28N E OF 92W IS DESCRIBED BY A WIND SHIFT...WITHOUT ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF WED NIGHT AND STALL ALONG 26N E OF 87W THU. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NEUTRAL POINT OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FIELD NEAR 25N87W THU. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH FROM 29N92W TO 21N95W SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED NE WINDS TO 15-20 KT IS EVIDENT IN THE MONA PASSAGE ON THE 0215 UTC ASCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. A TROUGH FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED...MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU...THEN DISSIPATE FRI. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE LOCATED E OF 65W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD W OF 65W WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE EAST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 65-70W SAT AS AN ATLC COLD FRONT REACHES INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THIS WILL ENHANCE E-SE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 20N AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI AND SAT. TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG WITH RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT SNAKES FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 30N72W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FL. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0220 UTC SHOWED 10-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS ARE 10 KT OR LESS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW TO AROUND 28N60W...THEN AS A COLD FRONT E OF 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 72W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND WED. A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE OF THE AREA TUE WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION SHIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TUE THROUGH WED AND THE LOW DISSIPATES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WED NIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 27N81W THU EVENING...31N69W TO 27N78W FRI EVENING...AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BETWEEN 65W AND 70W SAT. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL