000 AGXX40 KNHC 010542 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM N FL TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST. SLY RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF ABOUT 92W...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS S OF 26N ALONG 85W WITH THE NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT N OF 23N EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS AS FORECAST. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FILL REACHING ALONG 88W AROUND SUNSET TODAY...THEN TRACK NW REACHING THE NW GULF WATERS WED...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ONLY THE SLIGHTEST WIND SHIFT AS THE REMNANTS CROSS THE TX COAST THU MORNING. EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT FRI AND SAT. GFS GUIDANCE STILL UNREASONABLY HIGHER THAT UKMET AND ECMWF...THUS LEANED HEAVIER ON ECM GUIDANCE FOR PACKAGE. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION WILL SHIFT E OF 65W LATE TODAY...AND SHIFT E OF 55W BY LATE WED. AN E-W RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 31N JUST N OF AREA WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN AS A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES BERMUDA THU MORNING... REACHES FROM 31N50W TO 27N65W FRI MORNING...AND DISSIPATES E OF 70W ALONG 24N ON SAT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE PRECIP GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT SUGGESTING TSTMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR S FL. GFS AND ECM AGREE ON TIMING OF FRONTS WITH GFS SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS E OF SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WILL TONE DOWN THE WINDS A TAD WITH ECM BLEND. HEAVIER WEIGHTING USED FOR ECM ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ELY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AS FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON