000 AGXX40 KNHC 190818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 30N85W TO 26N85W. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 22N87W. LOW PRES SHIFT E-NE LATER TODAY AS COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILD OVER NORTHERN GULF AND PROMPTS LIGHT TO MODERATE NE BREEZE E OF 90W AND LIGHT SE FLOW W OF 90W THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG FRONT ENTERING GULF FRI NIGHT. MINOR VARIANCE IN FRONT STRENGTH BETWEEN MODELS BUT AGREE ON TRACK AND TIMING SO CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST IS FAIR. MODELS SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NW GULF SUN. PREVIOUS HINTS OF GALE FORCE ARE ABSENT FROM LATEST RUN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FUTURE RUNS INCLUDE IT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LOW PRES CROSSES FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILD OVER NW GULF PORTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF BAHAMAS KEEPS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E BREEZE OVER CARIBBEAN TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS...BUT SE WINDS INCREASE OVER NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT CLIP NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SAT AND SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW BREEZE W OF FRONT. WEAKENED FRONT STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS LATE SUN. HIGH PRES BUILD N OF AREA BEHIND FRONT AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N BREEZE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TO GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE MON. TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADES PERSIST THROUGH FRI BUT BECOME FRESH E S OF 15N AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF AREA. DECAYING NE SWELLS GET BELOW 6 FT BY LATE SUN OR MON. SW NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB OVER BASIN KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW ALONG FLORIDA E COAST INCREASE AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF FRONT SUN WHILE STRONG N WINDS W OF BOUNDARY N OF 23N. SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 12 FT. FRONT MOVE E TO REACH FROM 31N70W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE MON. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES