000 AGXX40 KNHC 121758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 28N90W DOMINATES THE AREA PRODUCING E-SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND N-NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST IS BECOME DIFFUSE. MEANWHILE STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF FLORIDA AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT 20 KT E TO SE WINDS BY FRI...AND 20 TO 25 KT SE WINDS BY SAT. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS OVER THE NW GULF PEAKING NEAR 10 FT BY SAT... LIKELY IN SE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE FAR NW GULF BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE 15 KT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BY LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES BY LATE SAT...PERSISTING THROUGH MON OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 8-9 FT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT AND TO AROUND 9-10 FT THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LATE SAT INTO SUN. TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 19N W OF 55W.. BUOYS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW EAST TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ARE 7-8 FT AT BUOY 41101 AND 9-10 FT AT BUOY 41040. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE THE RESULT OF THE NE SWELL APPROACHING THE AREA CAUSED BY LONG DURATION/FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 6 FT OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TRADES AND NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT AS A WEAK DYING FRONT STALLS N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. SW NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 31N68W TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM 31N53W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT. A LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N50W BY SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY S OF 25N AND ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE FRI. THE HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA NEAR 31N70W BY LATE SUN...MAINTAINING PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS S OF 25N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN...THEN VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR